Johnny Appleseed and Fault Tree Analysis

As a child in the sixties (as opposed to a child of the sixties, if you know what I mean), I learned about an American folk hero, part legend, part reality, named Johnny Appleseed. He would travel the frontier, what we now call the Midwest, planting apple trees. Little did I know, that later in my adult life, I would venture to and settle down in, the literal stomping ground of this icon of American folk lore.

Born John Chapman, Johnny Appleseed was an American pioneer nurseryman who introduced apple trees to large parts of Ohio, Indiana, and Illinois. He became an American legend while still alive, largely because of his kind and generous ways, his great leadership in conservation, and the symbolic importance of apples.

What does Johnny Appleseed have to do with Fault Tree Analysis? Well, I thought you would never ask. And if you didn't, I'm going to tell you anyway! Johnny planted apple seeds and they grew up into trees. As investigators, we get loss events planted on us, but that's OK, cause that's what we do. Our Fault Trees grow down into trees, much like a root system.

1. You start with the Loss Event.
2. From the Loss Event, you identify Causal Factors. These may be locations in a value chain, or activities on a time line. Either way, Causal Factors are high level hypotheses as to the occurrence of the Loss Event.
3. From the Causal Factors, you identify the Root Cause Categories. These are hypotheses subordinate to each of the Causal Factors. You can begin to see how this tree grows.
4. From Root Cause Categories, you then have your Near Root Cause(s), which are further hypotheses as to the Loss Event, subordinate to the Root Cause Categories. Now you're really drilling down.
5. Finally, from the Near Root Cause(s), you derive Root Cause(s). These are subordinate, still, to the Near Root Cause(s). They are still hypothetical, until validated otherwise through qualitative and/or quantitative data. (This process is the Verification Log, which I will discuss in another post.)

As you can see, the Fault Tree has now grown and you have the makings of a robust investigation on your hands. (For an example of a simple Fault Tree, you can click on the image below.)




Hmmm....

Perhaps Johnny Appleseed could have benefited from using Fault Tree Analysis to determine why apple trees and conservation were lacking in the Midwest at the time, rather than plodding around the country side.

Just a thought.